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CHANGE I Liked Innovation Revisiting History

Moore’s Law – 50 years.. and Beyond

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clip_image003Around 19th April, 1965, Gordon E. Moore made a prediction, in his article- Cramming more components onto integrated circuits – that set the pace for modern digital revolution. Moore studied the emerging trend and conclusively extrapolated the ideas into a single organizing principle that foresaw the computing power to increase, and its cost to go down, exponentially in the years to come.

When the law has turned 50, as can be expected, there would be a range of reviews.

We have collected some of these reviews here in this post. –

Moore’s Law Turns 50Thomas L. Friedman

‘Intel’s C.E.O., Brian Krzanich summarized where Moore’s Law has taken us. If you took Intel’s first generation microchip, the 1971 4004, and the latest chip Intel has on the market today, the fifth-generation Core i5 processor, he said, you can see the power of Moore’s Law at work: Intel’s latest chip offers 3,500 times more performance, is 90,000 times more energy efficient and about 60,000 times lower cost.

‘To put that another way, Krzanich said Intel engineers did a rough calculation of what would happen had a 1971 Volkswagen Beetle improved at the same rate as microchips did under Moore’s Law: “Here are the numbers: [Today] you would be able to go with that car 300,000 miles per hour. You would get two million miles per gallon of gas, and all that for the mere cost of 4 cents! Now, you’d still be stuck on the [Highway] 101 getting here tonight, but, boy, in every opening you’d be going 300,000 miles an hour!”

‘Moore pretty much anticipated the personal computer, the cellphone, self-driving cars, the iPad, Big Data and the Apple Watch. How did he do that? (The only thing he missed, Friedman jokingly told him, was “microwave popcorn.”). But “I guess one thing I’ve learned is once you’ve made a successful prediction, avoid making another one,” Moore said. “I’ve avoided opportunities to predict the next 10 or 50 years.”

‘Given that, is there something that he wishes he had predicted — like Moore’s Law — but did not?…“The importance of the Internet surprised me,” said Moore. “It looked like it was going to be just another minor communications network that solved certain problems. I didn’t realize it was going to open up a whole universe of new opportunities, and it certainly has. I wish I had predicted that.”

‘Moore is still humble. Moore said that for the first two decades, he couldn’t utter the term “Moore’s Law” because it was so embarrassing. After that, he was eventually able to say it with a straight face, he said.

‘Asked if Moore’s Law or Murphy’s Law were more popular on Google, Moore said, “Oh, Moore’s Law beats it by a mile.”’

Fueling Innovation We Love and Depend On

Economic Impact

‘As more transistors fit into smaller spaces, processing power increased and energy efficiency improved, all at a lower cost for the end user. This development not only enhanced existing industries and increased productivity, but it has spawned whole new industries empowered by cheap and powerful computing.

Technological Impact

From the Internet itself, to social media and modern data analytics, all these innovations stem directly from Moore and his findings.

Societal Impact

The inexpensive, ubiquitous computing rapidly expanding all around us is fundamentally changing the way we work, play and communicate…..In fact, it’s quite difficult to envision what our modern world might be like without Moore’s Law.


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SPECIAL REPORT: 50 Years of Moore’s Law : the end won’t be sudden and apocalyptic but rather gradual and complicated. Moore’s Law truly is the gift that keeps on giving—and surprising, as well.

The Multiple Lives of Moore’s Law By Chris Mack

In 1959 and 1960s, Jean Hoerni of Fairchild invented the planar transistor—a form of transistor that was constructed in the plane of the silicon wafer instead of on a raised plateau, or mesa, of silicon. … With this configuration, engineers could build wires above the transistors to connect them and so make an “integrated circuit” in one fell swoop on the same chip. ..Robert Noyce showed that planar transistors could be used to make an integrated circuit as a solid block, by coating the transistors with an insulating layer of oxide and then adding aluminum to connect the devices. Fairchild used this new architecture to build the first silicon integrated circuit, which was announced in 1961 and contained a whopping four transistors. By 1965, the company was getting ready to release a chip with roughly 64 components…. Armed with this knowledge, Moore opened his 1965 paper with a bold statement: “The future of integrated electronics is the future of electronics itself.” ….. Moore’s prediction was about the number of electronic components—not just transistors but also devices such as resistors, capacitors, and diodes. Many early integrated circuits actually had more resistors than transistors. Later, metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) circuitry, which relied less on nontransistor components, emerged, and the digital age began. Transistors dominated, and their number became the more useful measure of integrated circuit complexity.

Ten years later, Moore revisited his prediction and revised it. …. For a while at least, shrinking transistors offered something that rarely happens in the world of engineering: no trade-offs. Thanks to a scaling rule named for IBM engineer Robert Dennard, every successive transistor generation was better than the last. A shrinking transistor not only allowed more components to be crammed onto an integrated circuit but also made those transistors faster and less power hungry…..This single factor has been responsible for much of the staying power of Moore’s Law, and it’s lasted through two very different incarnations. In the early days, Moore’s Law 1.0, progress came by “scaling up”—adding more components to a chip. The microprocessor, which emerged in the early 1970s, exemplifies this phase…. But over the last few decades, progress in the semiconductor industry became dominated by Moore’s Law 2.0. This era is all about “scaling down,” driving down the size and cost of transistors even if the number of transistors per chip does not go up… In the 1980s and early 1990s, the technology generations, or “nodes,” that define progress in the industry were named after dynamic RAM generations: In 1989, for example, we had the 4-megabyte DRAM node; in 1992, the 16-MB node. Each generation meant greater capability within a single chip as more and more transistors were added without raising the cost….. Moore’s Law 1.0 is still alive today in the highest-end graphics processing units, field-programmable gate arrays, and perhaps a handful of the microprocessors aimed at supercomputers. But for everything else, Moore’s Law 2.0 dominates. And now it’s in the process of changing again.

This change is happening because the benefits of miniaturization are progressively falling away… for the last decade or so, Moore’s Law has been more about cost than performance; we make transistors smaller in order to make them cheaper…. The three factors—improved yields, larger wafers, and rising equipment productivity—have allowed chipmakers to make chips denser and denser for decades while keeping the cost per area nearly the same and reducing the cost per transistor. But now, this trend may be ending. And it’s largely because lithography has gotten more expensive.

Going forward, innovations in semiconductors will continue, but they won’t systematically lower transistor costs. Instead, progress will be defined by new forms of integration: gathering together disparate capabilities on a single chip to lower the system cost. ..we’re not looking at combining different pieces of logic into one, bigger chip. Rather, we’re talking about uniting the non-logic functions that have historically stayed separate from our silicon chips….. Chip designers have just begun exploring how to integrate microelectromechanical systems, which can be used to make tiny accelerometers, gyroscopes, and even relay logic. The same goes for microfluidic sensors, which can be used to perform biological assays and environmental tests… But this new phase of Moore’s Law—what I call Moore’s Law 3.0 and what others in the semiconductor industry call “more than Moore”—may not make economic sense. Integrating nonstandard components onto a chip offers many exciting opportunities for new products and capabilities. What it doesn’t offer is the regular, predictable road map for continued success.


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Moore’s Curse – By Vaclav Smil

There is a dark side to the revolution in electronics: unjustified technological expectations.. We are assured that rapid progress will soon bring self-driving electric cars, hypersonic airplanes, individually tailored cancer cures, and instant three-dimensional printing of hearts and kidneys. We are even told it will pave the world’s transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies….. But the doubling time for transistor density is no guide to technical progress generally. Modern life depends on many processes that improve rather slowly, not least the production of food and energy and the transportation of people and goods. There is no shortage of historical data to illustrate this reality,…. Outside the microchip-dominated world, innovation simply does not obey Moore’s Law, proceeding at rates that are lower by an order of magnitude.


The End of Moore’s Law? – By Charles C. Mann on May 1, 2000

The current economic boom is likely due to increases in computing speed and decreases in price. The article discusses some good reasons to think that the party may be ending.


Life Beyond Moore’s Law – Michael Feldman, Intersect360 Research – may lie in a number of technological developments that are already emerging. These developments – new architectures, processor integration, and 3D chip stacking – are all ways to use transistor real estate more effectively, and are being employed today to improve power and performance profiles beyond what can be delivered by Moore’s Law alone. Given that, it’s reasonable to expect that once transistor sizes become static, these strategies will become even more appealing.


The End Of Moore’s Law? Or The End Of The American Entrepreneurial Spirit?Gil Press

I predict that Moore’s Law will endure as long as the (American) entrepreneurial spirit will endure


Moore’s Law is dead, long live Moore’s LawBy Joel Hruska on April 16, 2015

After 50 years, Moore’s Law has become cultural shorthand for innovation itself. When Intel, or Nvidia, or Samsung refer to Moore’s Law in this context, they’re referring to the continuous application of decades of knowledge and ingenuity across hundreds of products. It’s a way of acknowledging the tremendous collaboration that continues to occur from the fab line to the living room, the result of painstaking research aimed to bring a platform’s capabilities a little more in line with what users want. Is that marketing? You bet. But it’s not just marketing.

Moore’s Law is dead. Long live Moore’s Law.


All images are adapted from net. The inherent rights to these images and the articles remain vested with the originators.

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CHANGE Contemporary Management Literature I Liked

Ignite Passions and Achieve .. Goals

While translating the article,  #4 Dream BIG!, from Rajesh Setty’s series of articles under the title “Distinguish yourself “, I went on to listen to the promotional video clip of  Marcia Wieder, the author of the book “Make your dreams come truein the article.

http://content.bitsontherun.com/previews/TMNhcdtj-Km5FPYDl                          Dreaming is Serious Business

We may keep the promotional aspect of the clip aside, for the time being, and do imbibe the principles she has succinctly outlined to enable business executives, in fact any one aspiring to achieve ‘something’ in the life,  to “ignite passions and achieve ..  goals” by systemically drawing upon the power of dreaming.

Indeed, our something has to be a precise statement of purpose and we have to do several things, passionately, to make the dream happen!

A detailed visit to the site has quite a few additional benefits, too.

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CHANGE Contemporary Management Literature QAspire.com thegreatleadesrshipbydan.com What Makes Us Happy

The Speed in a Modern Life

I am presently reading the sequel to “The monk who sold Ferrari”  –  Leadership Wisdom” by Robin Sharma. And now here is the coincidence that I have two articles from regular reading web-shelf on the subject of “moving Too fast” and (Executive)  ” Burnout” by Ben Fanning , in a guest article on “Great Leadership“.

So, this post – to bring in the essence of both articles, without precluding the “MUST read” each of the article and practice what they have said.

In Gentle Friday Reminder: Go Slow, Shri Tanmay Vora gently reminds us of a harsh aspect of the way we live our life today: “Life is too short (really) to zoom past it. At the end of a succinct article, thereby still , probably, facilitating the current mindset of whizzing mankind interest of reading the article for top-to-finish, he has ceratinly ‘gently’ jolted the reader by quoting “an amazing blogger, Nicholas Bate says: “Chase quality of life, not standard of living. The former is what most of us actually want”.”

Ben Fanning has retained the matter-of-fact narrative style befitting   the Management Genre of the Literature. The entire article – Why Burnout Should Alarm Executive Leaders – has a good deal of wisdom neatly stacked making it quite easy on an otherwise harassed, on verge-of -burn-out ‘modern’ executive to read the article. And the Bonus Tip “Celebrate the Small Wins – Find something to celebrate with your team every day. Even the smallest of wins can help build momentum to achieve bigger goals.” gives a small electric shock for the race for increasingly BIG wins in SHORTEST possible time.

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CHANGE Contemporary Management Literature Leadership Leadesrhsip Develpment Carnival

The CHANGE…. as can be seen…..@ April,2012 edition of Leadership Development Carnival, hosted by Shri Tanmay Vora

April, 2012 edition of Leadership Development Carnival, hosted by Shri Tanmay Vora  has also not missed the perennial feature of any major discussions on leadership development – CHANGE.

We begin our sojourn of Change by first looking at “The Adaptability Paradox” – the difficulty we have as leaders staying current and ‘learning through’ the change.

The author, Linda Fisher Thornton, talks to us “about how difficult it can be to change when we have been successfully doing something the same way for a long time.

The well worn path that we have followed for years is easy to follow. We know the rules, the processes, the tools, the pitfalls and all other aspects of that path.

Our comfort with that path makes it harder for us to see that even though the ‘way we have always done things’ has led us to success in the past, it may not in the future.

Sometimes the familiarity of the well worn path makes it harder for us to see what’s changing around us. And even if we do see changes, we have to choose to adapt to them. One element that makes it difficult for us to easily embrace change is the time involved in learning new ways of doing things.

The paradox is this – When I adapt to change, it will be MORE DIFFICULT short term and also EASIER long term.”  She calls this as “The Adaptability Paradox”.

“Initially, we must accept that it will be more difficult as we learn new tools, skills and approaches. Long-term, our productivity will increase and it will be easier for us to get work done. When we learn through the changes, our lives and work become EASIER because we are approaching them in new successful ways – with new thinking, new tools, new information and new skills.

Here are some of the warning signs that our skills are becoming outdated:

  • People are routinely using terminology we don’t know
  • It is becoming more difficult to get things done the way we’ve always done them
  • People are not seeking out our input the way they used to
  • Coworkers are adapting to new approaches and are more productive than we are
  • There are new studies, books and articles being mentioned that we haven’t read
  • There is free technology for improving efficiency in our line of business that we aren’t using
  • We feel out of the loop somehow but can’t quite figure out why

If we miss the signs of change (or if we see the signs but do not adapt), our skills become outdated fast – just as fast as the speed of change.

When a change in the world, our world, becomes a change we’ve ignored, then by doing nothing, we are actively choosing the more difficult path in the long run.”

This leads us to the next logical step, and also the article of the Carnival: Are You Ready for Change? In this article Guy Farmer first indentifies “signs that you or your organization may not be quite ready for change:

  • Leaders and employees emphasize how things have always been done.
  • It takes a long time for any new idea to be considered.
  • Leadership doesn’t listen to suggestions or a variety of perspectives.
  • Decisions have always been made by the same individuals or group.
  • Leaders view change as admitting failure or as a threat to their authority.
  • Leadership is happy with the culture of the company but nobody else is.
  • The prevailing leadership style is reactive and focused on the past.
  • Change is only discussed as a negative or something to be avoided.”

He then lists “Signs that you’re ready for change:

  • Leaders and employees are open to doing things differently.
  • New ideas are entertained and considered promptly.
  • Leadership is open to suggestions and varying perspectives.
  • Independent decision-making is encouraged at every level.
  • Leaders see change as an opportunity to grow and lead more effectively.
  • People work together to build a culture that benefits everyone.
  • The preferred leadership style is proactive and forward-looking.
  • Change is openly talked about and used as a tool for progress.”

So “Is your approach to change more like the first list or the second? … When you resist change, you’ll likely find yourself dreading anything that’s different and scrambling to put out fires and stifling progress. If you invite change, you’ll enjoy dealing with the challenges that come your way and building workplaces that’s flexible and agile.”

We thus proceed to Blanchard’s culture guru S. Chris Edmonds’ article “Leaders, Change What You Pay Attention To”, where he shares a ‘best practice’ recommendation: “leaders must change what they notice. Every day.” while taking up the required culture change.

The “culture change model requires that companies be very disciplined in setting expectations on two fronts: performance and values.” He notes that in most organizations, the leadership does work hard enough to enhance the performance clarityHowever, the importance of value clarity seems to be overlooked.

“Most leaders in organizations have been trained to look at performance metrics. Organizational systems have been designed and refined to present up-to-the-moment data about performance metrics. Those metrics typically include:

  • Widgets out the door
  • Quality of products and services
  • Financials, including revenue, expenses, and net profits
  • Waste, scrap, and/or recovery
  • Labor costs
  • Raw materials costs
  • Market share
  • Customer satisfaction

“These are important metrics to track as they all contribute to or erode financial success and the long-term viability of the enterprise.

“However, they are not the ONLY metrics leaders must observe closely. And, suggesting that leaders spend 50% of their time and attention on things OTHER than performance metrics causes consternation (and worse).

“Why? Most leaders have not experienced an organizational culture that requires values alignment as well as high performance. Without relevant role models or “on the job” training for managing values AND performance, organizational leaders don’t know what to “do differently” to do those things effectively.

“The leaders need to Pay Attention to Value Metrics, Too. These values metrics provide insights into how well the employee population believes that their company trusts, respects, and honors them, day in and day out.

  • Employee morale
    Do employees believe the company is a good place to work? Do they recommend that others work there (or stay away)? Do employees apply discretionary energy to their work tasks and opportunities?
  • Employee perceptions of the company’s culture
    Do employees believe that the organization has their best interests at heart? Does the corporate culture enable staff to share hopes and dreams about the future? Are they happy about working in the company?
  • Employee perceptions of the company’s leaders
    Do employees believe leaders are credible, behave with integrity? Do employees believe what leaders tell them? Do employees rally around leaders during times of stress or do they disconnect?

“How do you measure traction in these metrics? Wander around your workplace. Ask questions. Listen. Conduct regular employee surveys. Hold leaders and staff for values expectations.

“To free up time, energy, and space to observe these values metrics, leaders must delegate some of what they’ve been doing to stay on top of performance metrics to trusted, talented staff. Very capable staff are ready to provide data that enables leaders to keep track of performance standards and accountability.

“Great bosses create safe and positive workplace that inspires high performance and values alignment.”

The secret to creating a sustainable business that creates passionate employees who exceed performance standards and consistently wow your customers is embedded in the graphic the “Performance Values Matrix”, at left, in the Blanchard’s culture change model.

This model comes from Jack Welch, who, while President/CEO of General Electric, was the first corporate senior leader to formally hold leaders and managers in his organization accountable for both performance and values.

“To make your company values measurable and actionable, follow these steps to define your values in behavioral terms.

  1. For each value, brainstorm potential behaviors that you’d be PROUD to see all staff demonstrate when they’re modeling this value.
  2. Cull through the behaviors to reduce the list to three to five behaviors per value.
  3. For each behavior, define three key measures: “exceeds standard,” “meets standard,” and “needs improvement.”
  4. Test these measurements with key players throughout the organization.

5.    Survey entire organization using your custom values assessment, twice each year. Publish results throughout the organization in as many ways as necessary to ensure all staff know how the organization is doing with the goal of “modeling our values.””

We, thus, had great pleasure at looking in great, verbatim details, each of the articles on the subject of CHANGE in the present April 2012 edition of Leadership Development Carnival. The adaptability [to the Change]has in-built inherent paradox, understanding which gives a clear perspective to our readiness for the Change. All, and any, change, in the ultimate analysis call for building up safe and positive workplace that inspires high performance and values alignment.

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CHANGE Contemporary Management Literature

Who Killed CHANGE? By Ken Blanchard, John Britt, Pat Zigarmi, and Judd Hoekstra

I just finished reading this book -‘Who Killed Change?’

The story features a Columbo-style detective, Agent Mike McNally, who’s investigating the murder of yet another change. One by one, Agent McNally interviews thirteen prime suspects, including a myopic leader named Victoria Vision; a chronically tardy manager named Ernest Urgency; an executive named Clair Communication, whose laryngitis makes communication all but impossible; and several other dubious characters.

Here is introduction to this book:

John Britt, Pat Zigarmi, and Judd Hoekstra, coauthors of the new book “Who Killed Change?” with Ken Blanchard, talk about the book and what they think people will learn by reading this new and exciting murder-mystery:

Pat Zigarmi on Leading the CHANGE:

Our  Iceberg Is Melting – Based on the novel by John Kotter, Penguins depict the real challenges that organizations face daily. Our management course at the University of Georgia put together this video to offer a video summary of Kotter’s novel and inspire interest in a great novel about leadership and leading change in an organization.

The following clip summarizes the Key  Learnings:

Indeed a very readable – in fact a must-read – book on how to support CHANGE, by every one who wish to implement Change or even by those who do not wish to implement Change – because Change is inevitable and ever so difficult ! ! ! ! !